Tesla Share Price Graph - Overpriced Predictions WrongI have a relative that is quite literally the biggest Tesla fanboy I have ever conversed with.  He correctly points to how far ahead Tesla is on battery technology and how the big manufacturers like GM, Mercedes, BMW, and FCA have just let him take the market.

Simply pointing out that Tesla, like all companies, will have unforeseen roadblocks in the future and that existing auto manufacturers will have unforeseen advances results in a religious fervor that those outside the Tesla community don’t understand.  Our most recent conversation went like:

Teslas Complete Product Line Cybertruck Semi Model S Model 3 Model Y Model X Roadster Solar BatteriesI like the product and the company (Tesla) but not the willful blindness that fanboys have for it.

You sorta, kinda maybe like the product. If you truly were all in with liking the product – you would own the product. If you owned the product you would (like all Tesla owners) become a willfully blind fanboy such as myself –  THE PRODUCT IS THAT INTERCOURSING GOOD.

Tesla, like all companies, will stumble.

They already did, survived, learned from their mis-steps, made the corrections and moved on. Tesla has developed an inherent capacity to learn from mistakes, make adjustments and improve the business. Of course there will be mistakes – mistakes are core to innovation – If you are afraid to make mistakes you are afraid to innovate.

Other auto manufactures, like every industry, will out innovate Tesla.

No f’ing way that any of the dumb-ass legacy car companies will out innovate Tesla in the EV space. Look at what Tesla has accomplished and compare this to where the dumb-ass legacy car companies has accomplished in advancing zero emissions vehicles).

Tesla will have unexpected insurmountable problems and other companies will have unexpected amazing advances.

Bizarre hocus pocus forecasting that reveals a twisted anti-Tesla bias.



most innovative EV car companiesNothing runs forever and the two giant hurdles are getting past the startup and then getting to global scale.  Telsa has passed startup and are doing a great job on global scaling, BUT they will stumble.

see comment above.

The question is will the fall or just dust themselves off and stand up again.  Standing back up is harder when scaling up.  They will have new managers and people making decisions.

Your point? The corporate culture of innovation is core to the company and will be sustained and advanced going forward.

Musk could be hit by a bus and die from coronavirus, or he could just Micheal Jackson, Howard Hughes himself into craziness.  Terrorists could blow up his only 2 (3-ish) factories.  If Tesla’s OTA software is hacked, sales will collapse.

If you want to play the catastrophe game – how about a failure to transition to zero emissions vehicles which is what will happen if Tesla fails – Tesla will not and cannot fail or we fry the planet.  GM and Mercedes   could hire every notable Tesla engineer with giant salaries and bonuses.

Nope. We are well past the stage where dumb-assed legacy car companies could put up the bucks to deliberately stomp Tesla. Tesla is too big and too successful for that to happen. There is nothing that the dumb-ass legacy car companies can do other than get their the lazy asses in gear and make the transition to producing good quality EVs

There is more than a tone of risk for a company in Tesla’s position.

Tesla has challenges ahead but these are trivial relative to what the company has accomplished.



Automobile Manufactures Global Market Share by Brand in 2019Others will catch up and beat Tesla.

Nope – Tesla has too big a lead and is far more innovative than so called competitors.

It may be a Chinese upstart like Byton

talk about early stage these guys are not past the protype

or the US’ Rivian

looks to be a decent product but will not be competitive with the Cybertruck based on pricing and performance. 

It could be Ford and Mercedes

dumb-ass legacy car companies – no chance. 

Don’t bet all of your money against 100 years of global manufacturing knowhow.

I am not betting against the dumb-ass legacy car industry. I am betting on Tesla. I started with 1.4% of my money on Tesla. This has grown to 6% without further investment.


I am 50% likely to end up with a Tesla within the year.

Makes no sense to buy a non-Tesla EV. 

Both our vehicles will be for sale within the next 6 weeks.  However, I will buy the least expensive, highest quality, coolest vehicle with the most tech features I can find

This will be a Tesla. 

If that is the new Toyota RAV4 or the v2 Chevy Bolt, that is fine with me.

Do the comparisons, everything in the Tesla lineup is far superior to these vehicles.

I will sell it within a year and move the to the next thing.

You will not sell a Tesla within a year. Nobody does because the vehicles are that damn good and the vehicles get better with time.

Last year I wanted small and sporty.

Small and sporty rules my world. My Tesla Model 3 is perfect. I have no idea why people like SUVs and trucks, but this is my personal bias to driving small and sporty 

This year I want a AWD SUV.

Then get a Model Y. This will be a fantastic vehicle.

Next year I may want a wagon… I thrive on change and love “the deal”.

Let me be clear.  I like Tesla, a lot, but I don’t like hype or betting against history.  Is it possible that Tesla continues to out-innovate the market and become the worlds dominant manufacturer, certainly.  You just have to look at Howard Hughes, Bill Gates, Mark Zukerberg, Jeff Bezos and others to see those that beat vast odds of taking a winning formula to global dominance.  Is it likely, I don’t think so.  Why?  Because so many people with fantastic teams and products have failed to scale and stay in first place over the years.

Look at Adam Osborne.  While he did not invent the computer, his genius and team certainly made the laptop a real product for the masses.  He made thousands of correct decisions before screwing up and having others eat his lunch.

Am I passive aggressive about Tesla?  Sure, but I am not betting against Tesla; I am betting in favor the odds.

For the record, I hope I am wrong and continues Tesla ‘crush it’.


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