An Open Letter to Donald Trump & The Big 3: Don’t Let The Door Hit You On the Way Out

TO: Mr. Donald J. Trump
CC: CEOs of General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis

Your policy of aggressive protectionism is not a threat to Canada at least not in the automotive sector; it is an unexpected gift. For decades, Canadian taxpayers have been punishing ourselves by pouring billions of our dollars into subsidies, tax breaks, and infrastructure to keep your increasingly complacent, sub-par operations running.

We did this out of a misplaced loyalty to the North American ideal. You have now, through your rhetoric and automotive tariffs, freed us from that burden. When you finalize your departure from Canadian manufacturing, we are liberated to pivot to the new 21st century’s actual automotive powerhouses.

You think taking your car/truck factories home will hurt Canada? Certainly there will be 3 to 5 years of nasty transition, but after that Canada has a brighter future without you. The core idea behind the autopact and free-trade was to expand the market pie by combining forces and produce in-country roughly the number of vehicles each country consumes. That combination added about 750,000 million vehicles to what “Big 3” sales. If you want to walk away from that market, we won’t like it but we will more than survive it, Canada will thrive.

As we replace your shrinking presence with global players who actually want to be here, accessing a wealthy market totaling nearly 1.2 million annual vehicle sales, a market the size of massive US states like California, Texas, or New York.

The Obvious Response

Canada will follow this (simplified) response to your inane tariffs:

1. Force the sale of existing auto factories by massively raising the taxes on “vacant” facilities
2. Invite European, Korean and even Chinese auto-manufacturers to produce vehicles in Canada, by helping them convert the old plants, setup new factories, and eliminating the current tariffs and other barriers to their products
   • i.e. If they make 200,000 units here of any model, they can sell 200,000 units here, of ANY model made ANYWHERE, without barriers
     • Hey… doesn’t that sound like the deal Canada and the US have now? YUP!
3. Charge substantive tariffs (in the 15% – 30% range) to vehicles from companies that do not produce in Canada (i.e. YOU!)
   • Canadians will still by some of your ‘merican made product 5 years from now, but not many

Here is Ronald Regan explaining the scenario:

The Cost of American Loyalty

For years, Canadian federal and provincial treasuries have been squeezed into a perpetual cycle of appeasement, all to keep three foreign-owned giants vaguely committed to staying. Some recent numbers, particularly in the EV transition space, where you were supposed to be building the future, are staggering:

• The Stellantis-LGES Battery Gigafactory: The federal and Ontario governments committed $15 Billion CAD in performance incentives and tax breaks. This was a direct response to US subsidies and a desperate bid to secure EV production
• Ford’s EV Manufacturing: Ottawa and Queen’s Park committed an estimated $450 Million in public funds to support EV manufacturing, ensuring your products remained competitive
• General Motors (GM) Investments: Canadian governments at all levels invested hundreds of millions to retool and modernize our plants, all to keep the North American supply chain integrated

These billions, our public health funding, our infrastructure dollars, were handed over to subsidize your US-based corporations that we are now free to give to your competitors like Kia, BMW, Honda and even China’s BYD.

This wasn’t charity; it was a shakedown because we did not have options… this has changed.

The Trump Paradox: Short-Term Win, Long-Term Doom

Mr. Trump, your tariffs and threats have been brutally effective in the short term, forcing the Big Three to finally deliver the production “wins” you demanded. You can briefly take a victory lap for these shifts to U.S. facilities.

However, this is the very action that guarantees their medium and long-term failure, as any first year economic student knows. By forcing production to move to the U.S., you have forced Canada to divorce itself from your market and find better, more loyal partners.

Your policy doesn’t just put a tariff on autos; it removes Canada’s entire economic motivation to participate in your integrated auto supply chain.

You are sacrificing 1 million+ annual export market for the temporary satisfaction of reshuffling a few thousand jobs. This is the definition of short-sighted protectionism that always, eventually, ends in failure.

Canada’s Growing Market Advantage

The US is walking away from a market that is not just substantial, but expanding rapidly, so much faster than your own. Canada’s population growth rate, driven by robust immigration, has recently surged to some of the highest levels in the G7.

• In 2023, Canada’s population growth rate was approximately, significantly outpacing the US growth rate of about .5%
• This influx of new Canadians directly translates to surging demand for housing, infrastructure, and crucially, vehicles. Analysts note that this population spike is creating immense demand in the medium and long term

Your tariffs and threats are not just aimed at a friendly, large, stable, close market; they are aimed at an expanding market, one that will replace your products and production lines with new, secure, and permanent capacity from global players.

While America sees an annual 1 million+ unit market shrinkage, Canada’s new European auto partners will see a 1 million unit market opportunity.

Liberation & the American Downgrade

When you leave, we will not have the time to mourn so we will act:

1. The Property Tax Trap: When those assembly lines go silent and the lights dim, local and provincial authorities will re-classify your massive, empty industrial assets. New municipal levies and penal property tax rates will make it financially impossible for GM, Ford, or Stellantis to sit on them. They will be forced to sell them if they are not going to use them
2. The Global Swap: These available facilities, some with tooling, all with highly skilled labor, will become the most sought-after auto real estate in our country. Our new strategic partners like, Hyundai, Mazda, Mercedes, Cherry and BYD, are just waiting to walk into a stable G7 market economy

The Canadian market is now officially open to the highest bidder in quality and value. We can replace the Canadian-made “American” vehicles, with Korean, Japanese, European, and Chinese vehicles that Canadians actually prefer for their superior reliability, advanced technology, and competitive pricing.

The Wrap

Your actions are not strengthening the U.S. auto industry or your economy; they are forcing Canada to eliminate you from OUR market which permanently shrinks YOUR market. Fords Jim Farley seems to be the only one of you that understands this but even he will have to succumb to your industry crushing tactics eventually.

Your already failing American auto industry will be left producing ever more expensive, ever less competitive products in an isolated, shrinking American bubble.

In Canada, we will be driving higher-quality, lower-cost, globally-sourced vehicles, often built in Canada by partners who value the subsidies and market access they receive. Of course all of this could be avoided, and should be avoided, but you seem intent on driving your economy off a cliff so Canada will have bail out before the edge.

Put simply, we were loyal; you were ungrateful. Enjoy your tariffs while they last. We’ll enjoy the savings and the better cars so don’t let the door hit you in the butt on your way out!