Most pundits say that by the end of 2019 the market would clear itself but the Alberta Government wants to clear the over supply and reduce the current massive oil inventories from about 35M barrels to somewhere near it norm of 20M barrels.
So in an ideal world, both the 190,000 barrels per day that is being added to current inventory AND 15M extra barrels of oil in storage would all be gone by December 2019. If we drop 1.25M barrels per month to clear the existing inventory and we eliminate the 190K barrels on a straight line calculation, the market would need to cut production by 57M barrels in 2019:
| Over Production /Month | Monthly Cut Needed To Stop Over Supply + Drop Existing Inventory to 20 M barrels | Daily Production Cut To Hit Target | Over Production /Day | |
| Jan 2019 | 5,700,000 | 6,950,000 | 231,667 | 190,000 |
| Feb | 5,225,000 | 6,475,000 | 215,833 | 174,167 |
| Mar | 4,750,000 | 6,000,000 | 200,000 | 158,333 |
| Apr | 4,275,000 | 5,525,000 | 184,167 | 142,500 |
| May | 3,800,000 | 5,050,000 | 168,333 | 126,667 |
| Jun | 3,325,000 | 4,575,000 | 152,500 | 110,833 |
| Jul | 2,850,000 | 4,100,000 | 136,667 | 95,000 |
| Aug | 2,375,000 | 3,625,000 | 120,833 | 79,167 |
| Sep | 1,900,000 | 3,150,000 | 105,000 | 63,333 |
| Oct | 1,425,000 | 2,675,000 | 89,167 | 47,500 |
| Nov | 950,000 | 2,200,000 | 73,333 | 31,667 |
| Dec | 475,000 | 1,725,000 | 57,500 | 15,833 |
| Jan 2020 | 0 | 1,250,000 | 41,667 | 0 |
| Over Production | 37,050,000 | 53,300,000 | 1,235,000 |
| Daily Production Cut To Hit Target | |
| Jan 2019 | 231,667 |
| Feb | 215,833 |
| Mar | 200,000 |
| Apr | 184,167 |
| May | 168,333 |
| Jun | 152,500 |
| Jul | 136,667 |
| Aug | 120,833 |
| Sep | 105,000 |
| Oct | 89,167 |
| Nov | 73,333 |
| Dec | 57,500 |
| Jan 2020 | 41,667 |
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